Guaranteed Cappers

#961/962 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - We are going to start with talking about the starting pitchers in this one.  Walker Buehler is still trying to work back into form and is making only his 3rd start since he returned.  The first start saw him allow 6 hits in 4 innings to the light-hitting Marlins.  His next start was even more concerning as he allowed 3 earned runs in only 3 and 1/3 innings against the Padres.  Buehler is in line to struggle again here against a Reds team that has scored 10 runs in the first 2 games of this series and has averaged scoring 4.5 runs per game last 6 games.  All 6 of those games have been on the road and 5 of the 6 totaled at least 8 runs and we expect this one will too.  The Dodgers lineup helps the cause as LA should tee off against Graham Ashcraft.  The Reds expected starter tonight has struggled with 6 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 innings over his last 2 starts.  Ashcraft has a 5.34 ERA in his night game outings this season.  The Dodgers should tee off against Ashcraft here as they continue to be one of the top hitting teams in baseball as they did it again in last night's 7 to 3 win!  LA also did a lot of damage against the Reds bullpen last night which is a good sign for tonight as well as Ashcraft is unlikely to work deep in this one.  The Dodgers have gone 18-6 in two dozen games since their 12-11 start to the year.  In those 24 games LA averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game and this total opened up at an 8.5 but dropped to an 8 which adds to the value in this one!  Based on the factors we detailed above there is strong likelihood this one will turn into a high-scoring back and forth battle.  Over is the call in this one Saturday evening.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 166.5 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - We are going to see a higher scoring game here between the Sky and Wings and like an Over wager on this WNBA game. These same two teams just met the other night on this floor and cashed an Over ticket for us when they combined for 166 total points. The O/U number on that game was 161.5 at closing so the oddsmaker have adjusted. But have they adjusted enough? Not according to our numbers. In the game on Wednesday night the Sky had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and made just 5 of 17 3-pointers. They did however attempt 74 field goals which is well over the league average of 68.3 a year ago. Dallas shot 45% as a team and 33% from Deep. They attempted 82 field goals so both teams were willing and able to get shots up. The Sky were 3rd in EFG% a year ago so we are betting they make more shots on Saturday. Not to mention, Dallas was a lower tier defensive net rating team last season. This was a very high scoring series a year ago with the two teams combining for 200, 193 and 182 total points in the three meetings. We know for sure the Wings want to get out in transition and push tempo as they averaged 98.21 possessions per game last season, 3rd most in the WNBA. Chicago was slower last season, ranking 8th in pace of play with 96.18 possessions per game. Both of these teams were below average in defensive net rating a season ago with the Sky at 103.5, the Wings right below them at 103.5. Dallas had the 3rd best offensive net rating a year ago, had the 3rd highest scoring average at 87.9PPG, but also gave up 84.9PPG, 9th most. We are betting the tempo is fast in this one and we easily get enough FG attempts to cash an Over!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA WNBA play on #616 Washington Mystics +5.5 vs Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - The Storm have underachieved this season with an 0-2 ATS record as they’ve been overpriced in both games this season. The Storm were favored by -7.5 points in the season opener and lost by 13 outright. In Game 2 of the season, they were favored by -1.5 at Minnesota and lost again by 9-points. Washington is the exact reverse. The Mystic are 0-2 SU but have covered both games of the season against two of the leagues better teams in New York and Connecticut. Washington played the Liberty extremely well in the season opener losing by just 5-points at home as a +11.5-point underdog. On Friday they traveled to Connecticut to face the Sun and lost by 7 as an 8-point pooch. Last season the Mystic beat this Storm team three times by +7, +6 and +7. The wrong team is favored here and we like the host to win this game outright.

#912 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -115 over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 7 PM ET - Yesterday's game was rained out and will be made up as part of a double header tomorrow on Monday.  As for today on Sunday, the pitching match-up is expected to be Yu Darvish facing Bryce Elder.  Before we dig deeper into that, let's start by talking about the team situation here which certainly seems to favor the Braves in this spot.  The Padres took Game 1 of this series Friday but that followed 3 straight losses and defeats in 4 of 5 games.  Also, the 4 losses were by a combined score of 24 to 7.  The point is that the Padres have not looked good of late.  The Braves are now suddenly off B2B losses but this followed wins in 6 of 7 and those 6 victories were by a combined score of 16 to 5.  We like the overall team edge here too with Atlanta 15-6 at home this season plus having gone 17-6 in games against teams with a losing record this season.  San Diego is a game under .500 this season and their bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack this season for ERA but the Braves rank as one of the league's best for bullpen ERA.  The Padres have a .342 slugging percentage the L15 days which ranks among the worst in the league.  The Braves have a .420 slugging percentage at home this season which ranks 3rd in the NL.  The Padres have Darvish on the mound and he has been strong this season overall but this is leading to line value here with him on the road where he tends to not pitch as well. Darvish entered this season with a 16-16 record in his road outings last 4 seasons.  Elder has been great at home and had a 2.45 ERA in 4 starts there in his rookie season and has a 1.50 ERA in his 2 starts at home this season plus he went 7-1 at home last season!  Many indicators in favor of the home team at a low price in this one. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 3:30 PM ET - The value in this number is obvious as the last time these two teams met on this floor the O/U was set at 217.5. We are literally 10-full points lower now and will have to step in with an Over wager. One of these two teams has scored 116 or more points in every game of this series. We have had four games where one of the two put up 120 or more points. Even with one of the two getting blown out in a game they have still combined to score more than this O/U number in every game. They are attempting 173.5 field goals per game which is high by playoff standards. In fact, in the regular season the average FGA’s per game was slightly higher than 177 and those games averaged over 228 total points per game. New York is averaging nearly 112PPG in this series, the Pacers are averaging 112.8PPG. Both teams are shooting well with the Pacers making 51.5% of their shots overall, 40.9% from beyond the arc. New York is hitting 46.9% of their field goal attempts and 38.2% from Deep. Historically, Game 7’s are Under bets but this number has been over-adjusted and we like the value with an Over play.