Penn State vs Michigan Prediction: Week 7 Picks & Odds

Updated October 13, 2026. Odds as of October 13, 2026. Lines subject to movement.

Quick Penn State vs Michigan prediction: Michigan is a 6.5-point home favorite with a 42.5 total. Our Penn State vs Michigan prediction comes down to Michigan’s turnovers and whether its offense can score enough to cover after a bye.

Our Penn State vs Michigan prediction covers a Big Ten game between two teams that need a win badly. Penn State is 3-3 and 0-3 in conference play in Matt Campbell’s first season. Michigan is 3-2 and 0-2 in the Big Ten, coming off a bye. Michigan opened as a 6.5-point favorite and has won the last three meetings.

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Penn State vs Michigan Odds

Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, October 17, 2026
Stadium: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
TV: CBS

Key Stats

Penn State Outlook

Penn State’s record is worse than its numbers. Quarterback Rocco Becht has completed 62.7% of his passes for 1,397 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The defense allows 18.5 points per game and ranks sixth in FBS against the pass. The weakness is run defense, which ranks 105th at 165.8 yards allowed per game.

Michigan Outlook

Michigan’s offense has struggled, with the second-worst scoring offense in the Big Ten and the second-most turnovers in the conference. Quarterback Bryce Underwood has completed 59.3% of his passes for 881 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions, plus 212 rushing yards. Michigan also ranks 112th in red zone scoring. The bye week hasn’t helped against the number: Michigan has covered just twice in its last eight games after a bye.

Series History

Michigan leads the series 17-10 and has won the last three meetings, most recently 24-15 in 2023. This is the 28th meeting between the schools.

Penn State vs Michigan Prediction: The Case for Each Side

The case for Michigan -6.5

Michigan is at home, rested, and has dominated this series lately. Penn State’s run defense ranks 105th, which gives Michigan a clear way to move the ball and protect a lead without relying on Underwood’s arm.

The case for Penn State +6.5

Penn State wins the turnover and penalty battles, two of the most reliable indicators in college football, and has the better passing offense. SportsLine’s model likes Penn State to stay within the number, projecting Becht to outperform Underwood. With a total of only 42.5, a touchdown spread is a lot to cover.

Our Penn State vs Michigan prediction

This Penn State vs Michigan prediction leans on the numbers rather than the records. Michigan has the home field and the series history, but Penn State has the cleaner team and the better quarterback play this season. In a low-total game, the points carry extra value. Check the experts below for their Saturday plays.

Over/Under Analysis

The total is just 42.5, one of the lowest among Week 7’s top games. Michigan’s struggling offense and Penn State’s pass defense both point to the under. Penn State’s 30.5 points per game and Michigan’s run game against a weak Penn State run defense are the case for the over.

College Football Experts to Follow

See every big game in our college football Week 7 picks.

Penn State vs Michigan FAQ

What time is Penn State vs Michigan?

Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 17, 2026, at Michigan Stadium.

What channel is Penn State vs Michigan on?

The game is on CBS.

Who is favored in Penn State vs Michigan?

Michigan is a 6.5-point favorite, around -245 on the moneyline.

How should I use this Penn State vs Michigan prediction?

Use this Penn State vs Michigan prediction with the expert plays above, and check whether +7 appears at any book before you bet the underdog.

For full team stats, see ESPN’s Penn State vs. Michigan preview.

Odds are current as of October 13, 2026, and can change before kickoff. Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.